Market Updates : AIR
Updated on 1 February 2023
After over two years of rising rates and overstretched capacity, the rapidly cooling ocean freight market looks set for an "extremely challenging" 2023.
Uncertainties are ahead for the global economy as falling demand is going to affect business for commercial shippers and carriers. The cost-of-living crisis will decide the destiny of changing consumer demand over time.
With more and more services coming back after the pandemic (travel, hospitality, entertainment, dining out etc.), the share of wallet, i.e., the spend on goods, should return to pre-covid levels, falling from the elevated share during the Covid years.
For volumes to remain unchanged from 2022, a fast normalization of energy prices, a swift decline in European inflation and a China without a zero-Covid policy must occur. At their very best, transported volumes will be on par with the 2022 level, with most being to the downside. Volumes for 2023 could fall by up to 2.5% points. Some expect that we can see even larger volume drops than that.